At a Glance
Workforce planning is not only about headcount. Its hardest financial question is what to budget for labour costs over a multi-year horizon, and in BC that question rests on two moving benchmarks. BC's minimum wage is now tied to inflation by law and rises every June 1. BC's living wage follows a different model entirely, and for certified employers it has risen far faster than inflation in recent years. For leaders writing three- to five-year funding proposals, the question is not whether wages will rise. It is whether your labour budget stays affordable, sustainable, and predictable, and how wide a range you can defend to a board, a funder, or a donor.Key takeaway: Forecast wages as scenario bands, not point estimates, and build the annual wage increase directly into your budgets, funding proposals, and pricing, wherever your labour costs are set.
Three questions to pressure-test your plan:
A Critical Point
A single-number wage forecast is a guess dressed up as a plan. There is no way to know with certainty where the minimum wage will land in the years ahead, and the living wage is even less predictable. The goal is not to pin down the number. It is to mitigate the risk it creates, whether that risk sits in a funding envelope, an operating budget, or the operating costs you are trying to hold steady. Funders, boards, and finance leads trust a range with stated assumptions far more than a confident number that turns out wrong. A practical approach is to build a defensible range, state what it assumes, and put it to work in your planning.
What Leaders Are Navigating
Aurora's Perspective
BC employers who work through this process with Aurora leave with three things: a multi-year labour cost model built on defensible scenario bands, annual increase language written into their funding agreements and operating budgets, and a documented living-wage path their board can stand behind. The aim is to make wage forecasting something the organisation controls, not something it reacts to each February and November.That is the shift this article is about: treating the labour cost line as a planning discipline, not a year-end surprise.
Setting the Scene
Picture an executive director mid-way through a multi-year funding proposal. A program officer asks: what is your wage line for the next five years? There is no honest single answer. Too low and you underfund your own team. Too high and the proposal looks padded. The instinct is to copy last year's number forward and hope. That is the habit this article is meant to break.The two benchmarks you are planning against are not the same kind of thing.
Two Benchmarks, Two Logics
The minimum wage is the predictable one. Since the Employment Standards Act was amended, it rises automatically every June 1, tied to the previous year's average inflation. You will not know the exact figure until the late-February announcement each year, but you can model it within a narrow band because it follows CPI.The living wage is the unpredictable one. The 2025 Metro Vancouver living wage is calculated from the real cost of housing, food, childcare, and transportation for local households. It is not indexed to anything, and as the next section shows, it does not move in a straight line.
BC Inflation & CPI, 2015–2030
Annual inflation and the CPI index. The minimum wage now rises automatically with inflation each year.
Sources: StatCan (inflation, CPI); Government of BC. The 2022 spike is what pushed living costs — and the living wage — sharply higher.
Two Wages, Two Histories
To see why the two benchmarks need different treatment, look at the last decade. They tell almost opposite stories.
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| Year | Min. wage | Living wage | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $13.85 | $19.50 | Closest-ever gap; MSP premiums end, childcare benefit arrives |
| 2022 | $15.65 | $24.08 | Living wage jumps 17% — largest on record; housing and food costs surge |
| 2025 | $17.85 | $27.85 | Latest confirmed figures |
| 2026 | $18.25 | Pending (Nov 2026) | Minimum wage confirmed; living wage not yet published |
A straight line explains 99% of the minimum wage's movement over the last decade: a steady, CPI-linked climb with almost no deviation. The living wage refuses any formula: flat for years, a fall in 2019, then a 17% jump in a single year. The gap between them is now close to ten dollars an hour. One you can project; the other you can only bracket, which is why the rest of this article plans in ranges rather than forecasts.
The Three Scenario Bands
History sets up the forward view. Extend each benchmark as three bands — conservative, central, and aggressive — with the assumption named out loud so a board or funder can see exactly what you are betting on. The table below shows the central case.
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| Year | ~Min. wage (central) | ~Living wage (central) |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | $18.71 | $29.83 |
| 2028 | $19.18 | $30.88 |
| 2029 | $19.66 | $31.96 |
| 2030 | $20.15 | $33.08 |
Planning estimates only, not predictions
BC's confirmed 2025 CPI averaged ~2.1%; budget for ~2.5% as a planning buffer. Refresh each February when the minimum wage is announced and each November when Living Wage BC publishes.
By 2030 the minimum wage lands near $20.15 and the living wage near $33, a wider spread because housing costs are harder to call and, as 2022 showed, capable of a double-digit jump in a single year. If you are outside Metro Vancouver, rebuild the living-wage column for your community — Living Wage BC publishes rates for more than two dozen regions.
The Number to Budget
All of this points to the one number a board actually asks for: what should we budget for wages next year? It depends on who you are.Plan for roughly 2.5% per year if you follow the minimum wage, and around 3.2% per year if you are a Living Wage Employer. The gap between them — close to a percentage point — is the real annual cost of the living-wage commitment. Whichever rate is yours, carry it into your budget and refresh it every year.
The Living Wage Choice
For organisations that hold up the living wage as a value, there is a decision to make — and three honest ways to make it.
The Only Wrong Path: Drift
Holding the living wage up in public statements with no budget line, no glide path, and no acknowledgement of the gap to staff. Employees see through this faster than leaders expect. The drift position loses trust without saving money, and it is the one position to avoid.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Using "CPI plus one percent" as a living wage forecast. The living wage is not CPI-indexed, and the last decade shows it can fall in a good year and jump 17% in a bad one.
- Building a budget on a single-point estimate and calling it a forecast. Funders and boards prefer a defensible range over a confident wrong number.
- Treating absorption as a year-of-increase problem. The real work is in the proposal you write today, not the budget revision you scramble to write in 2028.
- Aspiring to Living Wage Employer status with no target year and no glide path. This is the trust-destroying version.
- Letting multi-year agreements go unchallenged at today's wage levels. The absence of a built-in annual increase is itself a wage cut over three years.
Key Actions: The Multi-Year Planning Checklist
- Build the scenarios once. Three bands for each wage through 2030.
- Refresh twice a year. February for the minimum wage, November for the living wage. Neither lands on a fiscal boundary, which is why they get missed.
- Lock in the central case. Use it in your next funding proposal or operating budget, with the conservative case as the floor and the aggressive as the stress test.
- Build in an annual increase. In every multi-year funding agreement or operating plan, a 2.5%–3.5% annual increase is defensible and documentable.
- Audit locked agreements. Flag any funding agreement or budget locked at today's wage levels through 2028 or beyond. Those are the budget emergencies.
- Choose your living-wage path. Commit, aspire with a glide path, or decline with a philosophy — and document the choice.
Frequently Asked Questions
Build Your Workforce Budget Scenario Model
If you are writing a multi-year budget or funding proposal now, this is the work to do before your board approves the numbers. Aurora builds the scenario model with you and makes sure the annual increase is written into your agreements before they are signed. Talk to Aurora HR →
This insight provides general planning guidance for BC employers and is not legal or financial advice. Wage rates, indexing rules, and Living Wage BC methodology can change; verify the current figures with the Government of BC and Living Wage BC before relying on them for a budget.
